Global life expectancy is set to rise significantly by 2050, according to the latest findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021
The study predicts an increase of 4.9 years for males and 4.2 years for females, showing public health improvements worldwide.
Why is life expectancy rising?
Key drivers of this increase include advancements in preventing and treating cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19, and a variety of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs).
Countries with lower life expectancy are expected to see the largest increases, leading to a more even distribution of life expectancy across the globe.
Dr Chris Murray, Chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), highlighted that health inequalities between high- and low-income regions are shrinking. “This is an indicator that while health inequalities between the highest- and lowest-income regions will remain, the gaps are shrinking, with the biggest increases anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa,” he noted.
The study also indicates a change in disease burden from CMNNs to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) like cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes.
This transition is driven by exposure to risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, poor diet, and smoking. As a result, while more people are expected to live longer, they may spend more years in poor health.
A healthy lifestyle
By 2050, global life expectancy is set to rise from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years, a 4.5-year increase. However, the global healthy life expectancy (HALE), the number of years a person can expect to live in good health, will increase by 2.6 years, from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050.
The GBD study used data to predict mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), life expectancy, and HALE for 204 countries and territories from 2022 to 2050. Dr Murray emphasised the importance of interventions to prevent and mitigate behavioural and metabolic risk factors to further reduce the global disease burden.
The findings build on the GBD 2021 risk factors study, which reported a 50% increase in DALYs down to metabolic risk factors since 2000. This underlines the growing impact of lifestyle-related health issues on global health.
Dr Stein Emil Vollset, lead author of the study, discussed alternative scenarios for public health interventions. The most impactful scenario, “Improved Behavioral and Metabolic Risks,” could reduce the global disease burden by 13.3% by 2050. Other scenarios focused on safer environments and improved childhood nutrition and vaccination also showed positive outcomes.
