As the world observes the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion this weekend, our support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity must not falter – and we must give all the resources available for Ukraine to get the job done
The continued bravery and resilience of the Ukrainian people is breathtaking. But as the conflict becomes locked in attritional warfare, the collective mood is subdued.
Political roadblocks in the US and the EU have slowed arms deliveries, with fears of obstacles to aid only set to mount as Republican lawmakers withhold their support for a new package for Kyiv and wider geopolitical turmoil is observed across the world.
Continued support for Ukraine and enduring resilience in the face of war
In the past two years, Ukraine has stood firm and blown Putin’s expectations out of the water, thanks to the extraordinary efforts of the Ukrainian military and people.
While the Kremlin predicted it would seize Kyiv within days of the invasion, the Russian military failed to capture the capital. And ever since, 50% of captured territory has been recovered, 50% of Russian land combat power has been written off, and 20% of Russia’s Black Sea fleet has been destroyed, according to the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.
Additionally, the heavy sanctions regime has condemned Russia a pariah economy: US and EU officials believe sanctions have deprived Russia of around €400 billion in revenue they would otherwise have had since February 2022. The latest wave of UK, US and EU sanctions, announced this week, are only set to further weaken Russia’s economy – closing gaps in existing regimes by targeting those that have helped Russia evade sanctions in the past.
Meanwhile, the Russian army, hollowed out by corruption, is on its knees. Bill Burns, the Director of the CIA, recently indicated that 315,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured.
However, despite these heavy military losses as well as severe economic sanctions globally, Russia has managed to increase its military spending.
Against this backdrop, the West must remain united, redouble its efforts and ramp up military and humanitarian aid – in order for Ukraine to push back Putin’s forces far enough to effectively start negotiating an end to the war.
There is an opportunity now to make a real difference
Russia’s bloody, unprovoked war has proven to be a serious misstep for Putin – which has not only unleashed devastation upon the Ukrainian people but has wrought havoc on Russia too.
Ahead of the farcical Russian presidential elections, Alexei Navalny’s death underscores the Kremlin’s fear that they are losing their grip on power, with domestic opposition brewing. In particular, the families of Russian soldiers have begun expressing their anger at the Kremlin for not allowing soldiers to return from Ukraine, mobilising to form groups such as ‘The Way Home’.
In the wake of Navalny’s death, opposition voices are only set to grow louder, acting as a thorn in the Kremlin’s side.
Undermining peace on an international scale
The war is a clear attempt to undermine peace, stability and democracy around the globe – and to distract from political and economic failures at home. This is reflected by a recent study by the Royal United Services Institute, which found Russia has an active interest in destablising European countries – both in Ukraine and across NATO.
With Putin on shaky ground domestically, Russia is at its weakest. And now is the time we can make the greatest difference.
To safeguard our collective security and protect Ukraine from any further horrors of war, the West cannot wobble in its support or get distracted but must double down on its efforts.
This piece was written and provided by Lubov Chernukhin – a British businesswoman, investor and philanthropist who was born in the USSR and is committed to advancing international support for Ukraine.
