As heat pumps become more popular and in higher demand, a report from Juniper Research has revealed that by 2029, over 238 million homes will be equipped with heat pumps
This is a 35% growth from 2025 when the number of homes using heat pumps is expected to be around 177 million, or 7% of global homes.
Widespread use of heat pumps
The main reason for this growth is regulatory actions; this includes the UK’s Clean Heat Market Mechanism, which pushes boiler manufacturers to deduct a significant portion of their revenue from heat pump sales.
However, although these projections encourage the adoption of heat pumps, they face some barriers that could slow down their widespread use. A major issue is high insulation costs as heat pumps typically require a higher upfront investment than traditional heating systems.
Another issue presented by heat pumps is the insulation and maintenance. Many homes, especially apartments, are also not ideally suited for heat pump installation, limiting the reach of this technology to early adopters.
Mass adoption of heat pumps
The heat pump industry does have promising growth, the real challenge lies in achieving mass adoption across the vast majority of homes.
According to the report, to reach the goal of equipping 90% of homes with an alternative heating system by 2029, heat pump manufacturers must focus on innovation.
They must invest in technologies that enhance the efficiency of heat pumps, therefore reducing installation costs.
Introducing more energy-efficient components, such as variable-speed compressors, can reduce the overall operating costs of heat pumps. This would make the technology more affordable for homeowners and increase its appeal by offering substantial long-term savings in energy bills.
R32 refrigerant
Another development identified in the report is the use of R32 refrigerant, which is expected to improve the operational efficiency of heat pumps significantly.
Using R32 refrigerant can help vendors increase the value of their products, making them more competitive in the market. Heat pump manufacturers are also encouraged to highlight these cost-saving features to boost consumer demand, particularly as regulatory pressure for clean energy solutions increases.
One of the main challenges shown in the report is the difficulty of retrofitting heat pumps in space-constrained apartments.
Manufacturers must prioritise developing monobloc systems in urban areas where apartments are normal.
These systems, which do not require the installation of an outdoor unit, could offer a solution for apartments and other homes where traditional heat pump systems may not be possible.
Failure to innovate in this area could limit the growth potential of the heat pump market and even lead to missed sales targets, potentially resulting in regulatory fines for manufacturers.
This research gives us a good overview of the global heat pump market, providing detailed analysis and forecasts for 61 countries over the next five years.
The study also shows key opportunities and challenges in the market, focusing on competitor strategies and emerging technologies.
