Richard Hebditch, UK Director of the European Federation for Transport and Environment (Transport & Environment), details what needs to be done to tackle transport emissions in the UK
Overall emissions in the UK have halved since 1990 as it has transformed its power generation. But the overall story of progress also reveals which sectors have not delivered – and transport is the biggest culprit.
Transport is responsible for more than a quarter of the UK’s emissions (and even more if you count in the UK’s share of international shipping and aviation). Unless these emissions are tackled, there is no way that the UK will reach its legal goal of achieving net zero by 2050 nor stay within the legally binding carbon budgets along the way. And it will only be with the sixth carbon budget from 2033 that will bring carbon budgets into consistency with the 2050 net zero goal
Decarbonisation in the transport sector
Within transport modes, there has been a mixed picture on decarbonisation. EU rules have helped improve car efficiency, but the recent rise of bigger SUVs now means new petrol and diesel cars emit more CO2 than those bought a few years ago. The distance travelled by vans (virtually all diesel) has more than doubled since 1990, and their emissions are up by more than 60%.
Aviation is surging back after the pandemic. In 2023, nearly 940,000 flights departed from UK airports, emitting a total of 32 Mt of CO2. Aviation emissions in the UK will likely overtake that from cars by 2030. Shipping uses some of the filthiest fuels but avoids the public scrutiny of other modes despite the lack of any progress in reducing emissions.
So what is being done to tackle the biggest emitting sector? Cars and vans are where we are seeing the strongest policy. For all the noise about pushing back the phase-out date for new petrol and diesel cars, the reality is that the UK Government’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate means that by the early 2030s (to paraphrase Henry Ford), we will have “any type of car the customer wants, as long as it’s electric.” 70% of new car sales need to have zero emissions by 2030; otherwise, car makers will face massive fines. This rises to 100% by 2035. For vans, 70% will need to be zero emission by 2030.
The zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate is the biggest single carbon-cutting measure in the Government’s carbon budget delivery plan. Car makers are responding to the certainty it provides by investing in new electric models – the UK is seeing the biggest level of announced investment in EVs in Europe. Chargepoint operators and their financial backers are also responding to the certainty it gives with £6 billion of investment in chargepoints to 2030. The results of this are that the number of chargepoints has been consistently growing by 40% year on year.
Sustainable aviation fuels mandate policy
In aviation, the sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) mandate is now a confirmed policy. It will mandate that 10% of fuel used by UK aviation will need to come from SAF. But any emissions reductions from using SAF depend on what kind of feedstock is used. The policy is weak in allowing feedstocks with very limited emission reductions when viewed in the round and in not providing enough backing for genuinely carbon-cutting SAF based on green hydrogen.
The mandate also has weak targets post-2030, which will mean that the emissions reductions won’t even be enough to counteract the growth in flying, which the Government is doing nothing to address – against the advice of the Climate Change Committee.
Transport areas where policy is pretty much absent
And there are also areas where policy is pretty much absent. For HGVs, the Government is still committed to phasing out the sale of new diesel trucks in 2035 for those under 26 tonnes and 2040 for those heavier but with no means to achieve it. At present, there is no published strategy or plan to provide charging for zero emission trucks (there is just one public charger for electric HGVs), no policies like the ZEV mandate to increase the supply of zero emission trucks and minimal subsidies for their purchase. Just 100 grants at £25,000 are available for large zero-emission trucks and 250 at £16,000 with similar numbers of grants for smaller trucks. This is tiny when compared to annual HGV sales of over 46,000 last year.
More must be done to tackle shipping emissions in the UK
On shipping, the Climate Change Committee concluded that “there are currently no credible policies in place to meet the required emissions reduction by the Sixth Carbon Budget period”. (1) The update to the Clean Maritime Plan (focused on domestic shipping emissions) was due last year, and now it looks like it may well not come out before the general election.
For international emissions, the Government places its hopes in the International Maritime Organization getting its members to agree to firm rules, something that it has been unable to do so far. With low-carbon fuels likely to cost more than dirty oil-based maritime fuels for some years to come and with shipping facing no real consumer pressure to change, there are no market incentives to change. Effective regulation at the UK level is needed to deliver emissions reductions.
Placing actual policies across transport modes
With the UK’s carbon strategy being again successfully challenged in the courts, there is an opportunity for the UK Government to use the time before the election to put in place actual policies across transport modes. Car and van policy is a success in delivering both real world emission reductions and driving private investment. We now need to see the same level of ambition applied to other areas of transport policy.
